Mysterious Bitcoin Whale Abruptly Moves Over $134,000,000 in BTC – Here’s Where the Crypto’s Headed

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Crypto exchange Coinbase believes the odds of the SEC approving spot Ethereum ETFs by the end of the month stand between 30% to 40%.

In a May 15 report, Coinbase Institutional Research Analyst David Han asserted that the main factor that led the SEC to approve spot Bitcoin ETFs — the correlation between CME futures product and spot exchange rates — could also lead it to approve spot Ethereum ETFs.

Han said there is “room for surprise to the upside on this decision,” both on prediction markets and in the fact that Grayscale Ethereum Trust is trading at a 24% discount.

He conceded that the SEC’s silence has caused “uncertainty” and that spot ETH ETFs that specifically aim to engage in ETH staking are unlikely to gain approval.

Politics one possible factor

Coinbase is optimistic in part because of crypto’s key role in US politics. Han said that the SEC will spend political capital by denying spot ETH ETFs, a strategy that Coinbase believes is uncertain.

Bankless founder Ryan Sean Adams echoed that sentiment, stating that expectations for approval were low until Democrats “caught wind their anti-crypto SEC chair could lose them an election.”

Neither individual described any specific political developments. However, recent surveys show that crypto owners slightly favor Trump over Biden. Uniswap founder Hayden Adams has described crypto as a Republican rallying point in contrast to the Biden administration’s regulatory approach.

SEC Chair Gensler and two other voting commissioners are Democrats, while another two voting commissioners are Republicans, giving the agency both Democratic leadership and majority.

Approval could be delayed

Han noted that the SEC does not need to approve all spot applications at once.

Each spot ETH ETF application has a different decision deadline. The SEC must decide on VanEck’s application first by May 23 but can decide on BlackRock and Fidelity’s applications as late as August.

Han also argued that a May rejection 23 could lead to legal action that reverses the decision.

In January, SEC chair Gary Gensler cited a lawsuit from Grayscale over the proposed conversion of GBTC as one factor in the agency’s approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs. However, Grayscale has not stated that it will file a similar lawsuit around spot ETH ETFs.

Bloomberg’s Balchunas responds

Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas commented on Coinbase’s contrarian and optimistic stance, writing:

“It’s like a way out of the money call option to give themselves notoriety if off chance it happens. No harm if they wrong. Risk-free PR move.”

He concluded that predictions from himself and his colleagues are “braver and riskier reputationally than… [last minute random] contrarian calls.”

Balchunas posted a low estimate on May 14, when he said the odds of spot ETH ETF approvals are “slim to none.” In late March, he predicted “very pessimistic” 25% approval odds.

Crowd-sourced estimates provide similarly low odds. At the time of writing, Polymarket odds of approval were 10%, down from 16% at the time of Coinbase’s report.

The post Coinbase expects 30% to 40% chance of spot ETH ETF approval by month-end appeared first on CryptoSlate.

Two Chinese nationals have been charged with leading a scheme to launder proceeds from cryptocurrency investment scams.

The indictment, unsealed in the Central District of California Thursday (May 16), names two individuals who have been arrested: Daren Li, a dual citizen of China and St. Kitts and Nevis, and Yicheng Zhang, a Chinese national, the Department of Justice said in a Friday (May 17) press release.

According to court documents, Li, Zhang and their co-conspirators managed an international syndicate that laundered proceeds from cryptocurrency investment scams. These scams, commonly known as “pig butchering,” fraudulently induced victims into transferring millions of dollars to U.S. bank accounts opened in the names of shell companies. The sole purpose of these companies was to facilitate the laundering of fraud proceeds, according to the release.

Once the funds were received in the U.S. bank accounts, it’s alleged that a network of money launderers facilitated the transfer of these funds to other domestic and international bank accounts and cryptocurrency platforms. The scheme aimed to conceal the source, nature, ownership and control of the funds, the release said.

The investigation found that over $73 million was laundered through U.S. financial institutions to bank accounts in The Bahamas. Additionally, a cryptocurrency wallet involved in the scheme received more than $341 million in virtual assets, per the release.

Li and Zhang allegedly played key roles in the money laundering network. They instructed their co-conspirators to open bank accounts in the names of various shell companies. Li helped operate one of the bank accounts at Deltec Bank in The Bahamas, according to the release.

The funds were allegedly then converted into cryptocurrency and sent to virtual-asset wallets, including one controlled by Li. Zhang also directly received victim funds, the release said.

The defendants face charges of conspiracy to commit money laundering and six substantive counts of international money laundering, which carry a maximum penalty of 20 years in prison for each count if convicted, per the release.

A study published in February by researchers at the University of Texas at Austin found that at least $75 billion in cryptocurrency alone was stolen between 2020 and 2024 due mostly to pig butchering fraud.

Pig butchering scams — which are named after the practice of farmers fattening up their livestock before slaughtering them — generally involve establishing connections with victims via wrong-number text messages whose conversations eventually lead to promises of fake investments.

The post DOJ Charges 2 With Money Laundering Around ‘Pig Butchering’ Scams appeared first on PYMNTS.com.